May
2009

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Wilkins Ice Bridge Collapse

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Images credit: Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Rapid Response Team, NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center
Text credit: Holli Riebeek, NASA's Earth Observatory

A narrow ice bridge connecting Charcot Island and Latady Island -- the last remnant of the northern part of Antarctica’s Wilkins Ice Shelf -- broke apart in early April 2009. These photo-like images, from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), show the break-up of the ice bridge.

In the lower image, taken by the MODIS instrument on NASA’s Terra satellite on March 31, 2009, the ice bridge was still intact. The ice appears to be smooth, an unbroken surface. Less than a week later, late on April 6, the MODIS instrument on NASA’s Aqua satellite captured the top image. The smooth bridge is gone, replaced by chunks of ice. The breakup was initially observed in radar imagery by the European Space Agency.

The pieces of the former ice bridge join multiple other chunks of ice formed as the northern portion of the ice shelf broke apart throughout the previous decade. The broken pieces of the shelf have remained frozen in place since 1998, but now that the ice bridge no longer provides a barrier, the remnants of the ice shelf may flow out into the Southern Ocean. A careful comparison of the two images reveals that some of the ice nearest the bridge shifted between March 31 and April 6.

Cracks that formed in the ice shelf below and right of the bridge in late 2008 expanded after the ice bridge broke and the remnant ice nearest the shelf shifted away, says Ted Scambos of the National Snow and Ice Data Center. These changes are emphasized by differences in light between the two images. The Sun was low in the sky on April 6. The clouds cast long shadows on the ice beneath. By contrast, the Sun was relatively high, and the light more direct on March 31. Fewer shadows outline the topography on March 31. The low Sun angle highlights cracks in the ice in the April 6 image. The cracks were first seen in radar images collected by the European Space Agency, and were evident on November 26, 2008.

Many factors contributed to the collapse of the northern portion of the ice shelf, including brine on the ice, physical stresses on the shelf, and warming temperatures, says Scambos. Throughout 2008, parts of the ice shelf (formerly to the left of the bridge) broke away. The ice bridge had been the last intact portion of the northern edge of the ice shelf. The southern portion of the Wilkins Ice Shelf (part of which appears in the lower right corner of the images) is still intact, but may be more vulnerable now that the northern edge has disintegrated.

What is the significance of the disintegration of the northern portion of the Wilkins Ice Shelf? The collapse of the ice shelf will not contribute to sea level rise, since the ice had already been floating on the water. When other ice shelves such as the Larsen, have collapsed, they allowed glaciers to pump more ice into the ocean at a faster rate, which did contribute to sea level rise. The Wilkins Ice Shelf, however, does not buttress any major glacier, says Scambos. The Wilkins Ice Shelf is the tenth major ice shelf to collapse in recent times, another sign that warming temperatures are impacting Earth’s fragile cryosphere.

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Distinguished Women Awards
Edited by: Vic Everett

Did you know about the 11th Annual Cal State L.A. Distinguished Women Awards? This event honors women faculty, staff, and administrators from Cal State L.A. for their many outstanding achievements and contributions to the community.

Women are recognized for a variety of accomplishments. The selection committee looks at achievements in the nominee's field, significant contributions to Cal State L.A., commitment to students, commitment to women's issues, community involvement, and professional recognition.

Editor's Note:

Honorees were introduced at the event in the University-Student Union. and were presented with an award from the Gender & Sexuality Resource Center and University-Student Union.

This year the Gender & Sexuality Resource Center and Cross Cultural Centers in the University-Student Union has selected the following women: 

Paula J. Arvedson

Charter College of Education

Jeanne Gee

Department of English

Catherine Haras

John F. Kennedy Memorial Library

Ester Hernandez

Department of Chicano Studies

Marina Jauregui

University Police

Lorie H. Judson

School of Nursing

Alison McCurdy

Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry

Sandy Sugiura

Charter College of Education

Susan Terebey

Department of Physics and Astronomy

Graphing Stratospheric Ozone

This lesson includes a simple "how-to" graphing example followed by other more sophisticated examples of graphing using NASA images and images from the Neumayer Antarctic Station. If you have experience graphing and don't need to follow the "how-to" you may want to try the following....

First turn your attention to the "Ozone Chemistry" section. This area contains enough material to enable students to find data and images for graphing. You may want to download the images onto floppy disk or print themout (preferably in color) and consult later when graphing data are assembled. The initial time requirement for this exercise was three hours. The time should be divided into three equal segments.

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Greenhouse Gases Continue to Climb Despite Economic Slump

Two of the most important climate change gases increased last year, according to a preliminary analysis for NOAA’s annual greenhouse gas index, which tracks data from 60 sites around the world.

Researchers measured an additional 16.2 billion tons of carbon dioxide (CO₂) — a byproduct of fossil fuel burning — and 12.2 million tons of methane in the atmosphere at the end of December 2008. This increase is despite the global economic downturn, with its decrease in a wide range of activities that depend on fossil fuel use.

“Only by reducing our dependence on fossil fuels and increasing energy production from renewable resources will we start to see improvements and begin to lessen the effects of climate change,” said scientist Pieter Tans of NOAA’s Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo. “At NOAA we have monitored carbon dioxide emissions and other greenhouses gases for decades and will continue to do so to help assess the situation and advise decision makers.”

Viewed another way, for every million molecules of air, another 2.1 molecules of carbon dioxide entered the atmosphere last year and stayed there — slightly less than the 2.2 parts per million (ppm) increase in 2007. Total global concentrations topped 386 ppm, compared to 280 ppm before the industrial revolution began in the 1800s.

“Think of the atmosphere and oceans taking in greenhouse gases as a bathtub filling with more water than the drain can empty, and the drain is very slow,” said Tans. “We need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to the point where they match levels that can be absorbed by Earth's ecosystems."

The increases in CO₂ and methane during 2008 are slightly less than those measured in 2007, but fall well within the range of yearly fluctuations from natural changes, according to NOAA experts.

The rise in CO₂ levels varies from year to year along with plant growth and decay, wildfire activity, and changes in soil conditions. Emerging from that natural variability is a consistent upward trend produced by burning coal, oil, and gas for transportation and industry.

Methane levels rose in 2008 for the second consecutive year after a 10-year lull. Atmospheric concentrations increased by 4.4 molecules for every billion molecules of air, bringing the total global concentration up to 1788 parts per billion, according to NOAA data.

Pound for pound, methane is 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide, but there’s far less of it in the atmosphere and is measured in parts per billion. When related climate affects are taken into account, methane’s overall climate impact is nearly half that of carbon dioxide.

CO₂, Historically Speaking

Carbon dioxide growth has increased by more than two percent each year since preindustrial times, doubling every 31 years, according to a study published in the journal Atmospheric Environment last month by David Hofmann, James Butler, and Tans. All are researchers at ESRL.

Even during the 1970s, when fossil fuel emissions dropped sharply in response to the oil crises, emissions remained high enough that CO₂ levels continued to climb exponentially, similar to the way compound interest builds.

But the carbon dioxide record isn’t immune to temporary dips lasting several years or more. A slowdown occurred in 1930–36 after the Great Depression and again during the 1940s, possibly because of World War II.

The large volcanic eruptions of Mt. Agung (Indonesia) in 1963 and Mt. Pinatubo (Philippines) in 1991 each slowed CO₂ buildup for several years. Volcanic emissions cool the lower atmosphere and scatter sunlight. Those changes can both reduce plant respiration, a process that releases carbon dioxide, and boost photosynthesis, which removes carbon dioxide from the air.

“Atmospheric CO₂ growth is best reflected by the world population trend,” said Hofmann. “The two have tracked each other extremely well over the past century. A break in the close relation between population growth and CO₂ growth would be a clear sign of progress in the inevitable need to limit atmospheric CO₂.”

NOAA understands and predicts changes in the Earth's environment, from the depths of the ocean to the surface of the sun, and conserves and manages our coastal and marine resources.

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Air pollution helps plants blunt climate change: study
By: BREITBART.COM

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Tackling climate change is like trying to lose weight, Hillary Clinton says
Dr Telegraph.co.uk

Hillary Clinton, the US Secretary of State, has compared the challenge of fighting climate change to her own struggle to lose weight.

Speaking to State Department staff on Earth Day, Mrs Clinton said more must be done to reduce the department's environmental footprint and conceded this was a big challenge, much like one of her personal battles.

"Often times when you face such an overwhelming challenge as global climate change, it can be somewhat daunting - it's kind of like trying to lose weight, which I know something about," she said to laughter.

"You think, oh I only have to lose X numbers of pounds but it seems like such a far away goal," she added.

"It's kind of like world peace and so therefore why even try? Well, because we are called to try. That's who we are as human beings and that's especially how we think of ourselves as Americans."

Later, Mrs Clinton defended the right to abortion and the Obama administration's decision to finance family planning overseas.

"When I think about the suffering that I have seen of women around the world, I've been in hospitals in Brazil where half the women were enthusiastically and joyfully greeting new babies and the other half were fighting for their lives against botched abortions," sehe told Congress.

"I've been in African countries where 12 and 13-year-old girls are bearing children. I have been in Asian countries where the denial of family planning consigns women to lives of oppression and hardship..

"It is my strongly held view that you are entitled to advocate and everyone who agrees with you should be free to do so anywhere in the world, and so are we."

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Online Poll Ranks NASA's Biggest Hits for Planet Earth

After a week of online voting, the results are in -- just in time for Earth Day. Choosing from 10 candidates for NASA's biggest accomplishment from its long history of Earth observations from space, voters selected precise global navigation made possible by NASA's pioneering research in Earth's rotation and shape as their top choice. Diagnosing Earth's ailing ozone layer and advancing weather forecasts were the second and third choices in the poll.

1. Finding Your Way with GPS (3280)
2. Diagnosing Our Ailing Ozone Layer (2408)
3. From Storm-Spotting to Next Week's Weather (2313)
4. Warming and Rising Seas (1443)
5. Global Reach of Air Pollution (1321)
6. Ice Sheets on the Move (1151)
7. It's a Big Green World (1102)
8. Predicting Feast or Famine (856)
9. A Lively Water World (631)
10. Ultimate Home Energy Audit (543)

The candidates were selected from a 2008 National Academy of Sciences study that cataloged the biggest achievements gained from five decades of observing Earth from space. NASA played a big part in these accomplishments that have changed our world.

Today NASA sponsors several programs aimed at precision navigation and positioning in Earth exploration, science and applications. In addition to providing the capability for precise navigation anywhere on Earth any time, scientists use supercharged GPS receivers to track movement across earthquake-prone faults, map water resources and melting glaciers. New positioning technologies such as GPS are fundamental to advances in exploration, science, industry, and society.

Click here for descriptions of each of the NASA accomplishments included in the poll.

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Environmental Educator Selected to Sail Aboard NOAA Ship
NOAA Kicks off 2009 Teacher at Sea Program

NOAA has selected California educator Taylor Parker to join scientists aboard the 224-foot research vessel, NOAA Ship Oscar Elton Sette, as part of its Teacher at Sea program to bridge science and education.

“The NOAA Teacher at Sea program continues to be a great way to introduce educators to NOAA science in an ‘up close and personal’ way, that helps them bring science alive for their students and people they interact with on a daily basis,” said Ryan Nichols, chief scientist for the upcoming cruise.

For two weeks aboard the ship in Honolulu, Parker will help scientists with two missions—studying juvenile Hawaiian bottomfish biology and habitat, and improving knowledge of billfish spawning activities. He will write logs that include information about important research of the day and life at sea, interviews with scientists, and photos. The logs will be posted on NOAA’s Teacher at Sea Web site.

Parker runs the education program for Friends of the Colorado Lagoon, which organizes public nature walks and field trips at the lagoon for students from kindergarten through college.

“I am very excited to have been given this opportunity,” Parker said. “We work in a back bay lagoon, and bringing in the marine element has been a challenge. If I can provide our visitors information about the marine environment through my first-hand experience, it will help make that connection and encourage marine conservation.”

Now in its 19^th year, the program has provided more than 500 teachers the opportunity to gain first-hand experience in science at sea. This year NOAA received more than 170 applications. They selected 30 individuals to participate in cruises. According to Nichols, educators can enrich their curricula with a depth of understanding made possible by living and working side-by-side, day and night, with those who contribute to the world’s body of scientific knowledge.

Climate Change and Atmospheric Circulation Will Make for Uneven Ozone Recovery
By: Michael Carlowicz
NASA Earth Science News Team

Earth's ozone layer should eventually recover from the unintended destruction brought on by the use of chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and similar ozone-depleting chemicals in the 20th century. But new research by NASA scientists suggests the ozone layer of the future is unlikely to look much like the past because greenhouse gases are changing the dynamics of the atmosphere.

Previous studies have shown that while the buildup of greenhouse gases makes it warmer in troposphere – the level of atmosphere from Earth’s surface up to 10 kilometers (6 miles) altitude – it actually cools the upper stratosphere – between 30 to 50 kilometers high (18 to 31 miles). This cooling slows the chemical reactions that deplete ozone in the upper stratosphere and allows natural ozone production in that region to outpace destruction by CFCs.

But the accumulation of greenhouse gases also changes the circulation of stratospheric air masses from the tropics to the poles, NASA scientists note. In Earth's middle latitudes, that means ozone is likely to "over-recover," growing to concentrations higher than they were before the mass production of CFCs. In the tropics, stratospheric circulation changes could prevent the ozone layer from fully recovering.

"Most studies of ozone and global change have focused on cooling in the upper stratosphere," said Feng Li, an atmospheric scientist at the Goddard Earth Sciences and Technology Center at the University of Maryland Baltimore County, Baltimore, Md. and lead author of the study. "But we find circulation is just as important. It's not one process or the other, but both."

The findings are based on a detailed computer model that includes atmospheric chemical effects, wind changes, and solar radiation changes. Li's experiment is part of an ongoing international effort organized by the United Nations Environment Programme's Scientific Assessment Panel to assess the state of the ozone layer. Li and colleagues published their analysis in March in the journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics.

Working with Richard Stolarski and Paul Newman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., Li adapted the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS-CCM) to examine how climate change will affect ozone recovery. The team inserted past measurements and future projections of ozone-depleting substances and greenhouse gases into the model. Then the model projected how ozone, the overall chemistry, and the dynamics of the stratosphere would change through the year 2100.

"In the real world, we have observed statistically significant turnaround in ozone depletion, which can be attributed to the banning of ozone-depleting substances," said Richard Stolarski, an atmospheric chemist at Goddard and a co-author of the study. "But making that connection is complicated by the response of ozone to greenhouse gases."

The researchers found that greenhouse gases alter a natural circulation pattern that influences ozone distribution. Brewer-Dobson circulation is like a pump to the stratosphere, moving ozone from the lower parts of the atmosphere, into the upper stratosphere over the tropics. Air masses then flow north or south through the stratosphere, away from the tropics toward the poles.

In Li’s experiment, this circulation pump accelerated to a rate where the ozone flowing upward and outward from the tropics created a surplus at middle latitudes. Though the concentration of chlorine and other ozone-depleting substances in the stratosphere will not return to pre-1980 levels until 2060, the ozone layer over middle latitudes recovered to pre-1980 levels by 2025.

The Arctic – which is better connected to mid-latitude air masses than the Antarctic -- benefitted from the surplus in the northern hemisphere and from the overall decline of ozone-depleting substances to recover by 2025. Globally averaged ozone and Antarctic concentrations catch up by 2040, as natural atmospheric production of ozone resumes.

This recovery in the middle and polar latitudes has mixed consequences, Li noted. It might have some benefits, such as lower levels of ultraviolet radiation reaching the Earth's surface and correspondingly lower rates of skin cancer. On the other hand, it could have unintended effects, such as increasing ozone levels in the troposphere, the layer of atmosphere at Earth’s surface. The model also shows a continuing ozone deficit in the stratosphere over the tropics. In fact, when the model run ended at year 2100, the ozone layer over the tropics still showed no signs of recovery.

In February, researchers from Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, teamed with Stolarski and other NASA scientists on a similar paper suggesting that increasing greenhouse gases would delay or even postpone the recovery of ozone levels in the lower stratosphere over some parts of the globe. Using the same model as Li, Stolarski, and Newman, the researchers found that the lower stratosphere over tropical and mid-southern latitudes might not return to pre-1980s levels of ozone for more than a century, if ever.

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Early Warning System Forecasts Deadly Mudslides

Many people living throughout much of the continental United States may not be too concerned about a wall of mud, water, and debris swallowing up their homes and potentially endangering their lives, but those living near wildfire burn areas in regions such as Southern California may tell another story.

In the United States, approximately 25 to 50 deaths a year can be attributed to the phenomenon of debris flow — or mudslides as they are more commonly known — with monetary losses exceeding $2 billion annually (National Resource Council, 2004).

These gravity-driven mixtures of sediment, water, and other dislodged objects are caused by heavy rainfall or rapid snowmelt, and weakened terrain, creating a deadly slurry of dislodged rocks, soil, and trees. These ingredients combine to resemble a wet concrete-like mass that can develop tremendous downhill force and leave a path of destruction in its wake.

New Prediction Technologies

The U.S. Geological Survey,  working closely with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientists from the National Weather Service Office of Hydrologic Development, NWS forecast offices at Oxnard, San Diego and Monterey, Calif., the Earth Systems Research Laboratory, and the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Okla., developed a prototype debris flow warning system using weather forecasts and precipitation measurements along with regional USGS rainfall rate thresholds to determine the probability of debris flows.

“Important science and technological advances suggest the time is right to develop an operational warning system,” said Jayme Laber, NWS hydrologist. “With more detailed and accurate weather and hydrological forecasts available the opportunity for a formal, operational debris-flow forecast warning system seemed evident.”

Vital Information for Communities Affected by Forest Fires

Starting in 2005, a team comprised of geologists, hydrologists, and meteorologists selected recent burn areas outside Burbank, Calif., as the testbed for a three-year study. Extensive wildfires, mountainous terrain, and ideal meteorological conditions in the region (strong winds and drought conditions in the lower regions and heavy snow or rainfall in upper-elevations) provided favorable conditions for debris flows and a perfect research testbed.

As a result of the prototype study, a warning system similar to that used by the NWS to include outlooks, watches, and warnings was developed. Outlooks, which include information about potential hazards from burned areas, are often issued before the onset of winter storms — providing considerable lead time to prepare for potential dangers. Watches are typically issued up to six to twelve hours before the potential for a debris flow event. Warnings are issued when the threat of hazardous weather is occurring, or has a very high probability of occurring, resulting in a serious threat to life and property.

“Resulting data from the prototype has been received enthusiastically by the emergency management community,” said David Jorgensen, NOAA research meteorologist. “This system has provided valuable information to emergency managers in communities affected by forest fires and has emergency managers in other parts of the country requesting extension of the system to include their communities.”

Real-Time Data for Advanced Warning

To obtain accurate research data in the mountainous terrain, mobile Doppler weather radar and vertical wind profilers from ESRL’s Hydrometeorological testbed are used in burn areas to augment NWS network radar data along with measurements collected from USGS rain gauges, topographic data, soil moisture sensors, surface runoff sensors, and video cameras. This data helps scientists develop high-resolution rainfall models and debris-flow models. These data sets are transmitted in real time to the NWS forecast offices so the latest information can be used in debris-flow warning decisions.

Plans for the warning system include new or improved ways to define how much rain various soil conditions can absorb before becoming unstable, estimates of when debris-flow may occur, and linking real-time monitoring of precipitation and hill slope conditions with advanced models. While the current system is designed to work in areas that have lost a lot of ground and tree cover to fire, the system could be expanded to include areas untouched by fire nationwide.

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Tornado Chase 

With an average energy of roughly 1 million pounds of TNT, tornados are one of nature’s most powerful phenomena. And while atmospheric scientists know a great deal about tornados, such as the conditions in which they are most likely to form, no one yet understands exactly what makes a tornado or how to accurately predict their creation.

Running time 2:45 minutes.

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